Is Las Vegas really dead? Tourism slump a warning for Bay Area and beyond (2025)

LAS VEGAS — Through decades of running casinos such as Circa, Derek Stevens has survived booms, recessions and a global pandemic, only to face his latest vexation: the “Las Vegas is dead”TikTok meme.

It started this summer, a flurry of videos that panned along desolate hotel lobbies or sparse sidewalks on the Strip, often accompanied by somber string music. Disenchanted travelers griped about price-gouging, pointing to a$50 hotel “intimacy kit” (condoms, massage oils) and $11 lattes.

“Preposterous,” Stevens said of the footage, striking a dismissive tone that might be familiar to Bay Area hospitality professionals who have spent the past few years on the defensive.

But there’s data to back up the Vegas-in-decline narrative — and perhaps a warning sign for the broader U.S. tourism economy amid President Donald Trump’s punishing tariff policies and hostility to foreigners.

July figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority showed tourism had dropped in just about every metric, most notably with a 12% decrease in visitors and a 7.6 percentage point dip in hotel occupancy compared with the same month last year. The trend reflects broader U.S. consumer uncertainty and poses agonizing questions for other tourist hubs, including the Bay Area. If the house can’t win in Vegas, where can it?

An image problem

Worse than the numbers may be the perception. Vegas’ negative feedback loop echoes what happened in San Francisco during the years after COVID, when the city became notorious both for its out-of-control car burglaries and its exorbitant $17 salads. Reputational damage led major conferences to pull out, with some of them moving — ironically — to Vegas, where the July statistics indicate a 10.7% spike in convention attendance.

While visitors are gradually returning to San Francisco, with the SF Travel tourism bureau projecting a near 2% increase from last year, elected officials and hospitality leaders are constantly trying to market their city as cleaner, more affordable and more business-friendly than national headlines would suggest. In Wine Country, hotel occupancy is up — this year Napa saw a 3% rise through July compared with the same period in 2024 — but room prices are staggeringly high and tourism boosters are straining to convince people that the region isn’t just a playground for the rich.

Officials in Vegas are equally desperate to disprove a discourse they say is out of proportion with reality.

Yet, on the Strip itself, the situation is complicated.

Take a walk down Las Vegas Boulevard as dusk falls on a Saturday evening in August. Some areas are definitely buzzing. People jostle to watch on-the-hour water shows at the Fountains of Bellagio. Vendors hawking beer from coolers quickly run out. Revelers throng at pedestrian bridges, snappingselfies against a marquee skyline.

Toward the southern end of the Strip, foot traffic grows scarce. Two showgirls in pink tail feathers shuffle by the M&M’s World candy mall, scanning for anyone who might take photos with them for tips. Inside a 24-hour tattoo parlor at Harmon Corner, the vinyl chairs sit empty.

Over on Fremont Street in the historic part of downtown, a 12% slump is hard to feel. People stream out of the Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino, gather to watch rock bands perform on outdoor stages, gawk at a medley of Stone Temple Pilots videos streaming on the rooftop canopy.

The crowds don’t impress David Mitchell, a busker in a pink bikini top and bunny ears, who stood beneath a blinking Steak ’n Shake billboard. “Oh, God, it’s slow,” Mitchell groaned. He and his husband, Justin Mitchell — dressed as a police officer in skimpy shorts and matching bunny ears — had set up at 5 p.m., striking poses and smiling through gritted teeth whenever someone raised a camera. They made about $100 in two hours.

“In the past we would have made $800 or $900 by now,” David said.

Up the street, a dominatrix and a dancer in a gorilla suit didn’t appear to be doing much better.

Earle Williams, now a full-time Uber driver, had worked as a chef at New York-New York Hotel & Casino until he was laid off a few months ago. Raised in the Vegas suburbs, Williams said he generally feels betrayed by his hometown.

“Vegas used to take care of its people,” Williams said, driving down Tropicana Avenue on a Saturday, past the Excalibur Hotel with its faux medieval castle design. New York-New York loomed, its rooftop a pastiche of mock skyscrapers, the Statue of Liberty and a ConeyIsland-themed roller coaster. Williams kept his eyes on the road.

Sticker shock

Common in Las Vegas is the concern that aggressive prices are deterring tourists. Anyone who subscribes to the theory has ample evidence. At Le Cirque, a French restaurant in theBellagio, the Alaskan king crab dish costs $175. Raid the minibar of any resort hotel room, and you might pay $14 for a Snickersor $17 for a can of beer. Resort fees can tack an extra $55 onto room rates at high-end hotels, and parking, long free, now often costs $20 per night.Bloggers have fixated on a $26 bottle of water at the Aria Resort and Casino. (A spokesperson for MGM, which owns Aria, said the resort has lowered the price of water to $18 for a large and $14 for a small.)

Brett Riley, a visitor from Arizona, was so determined to avoid paying the bottle markup that he poured ice water into a reused Fat Tuesday vodka cup.

“Things are definitely more expensive,” Riley conceded, shrugging as he sipped his water outside a drug tore on Las Vegas Boulevard. He was staying with his parents at the Luxor, one of the Strip’s more affordable hotels, where rooms in the black glass pyramid go for $63 a night. Still, the expenses were piling up. A single cocktail cost $36, Riley said. When the Rileys splurged to watch comedian Carrot Top do a set at the Luxor on Friday night, they paid about $200 for three tickets.

“And that was to sit three-quarters of the way up,” scoffed Riley’s father, Brad Riley.

Seeking likes

Economists say high costs account for part, but not all, of Las Vegas’ predicament.

“Look, visitor volume is down, and consumers who are coming are spending less money,” said Jeremy Aguero, principal analyst at the firm Applied Analysis. He alluded to many contributing factors, some of which are reversible — consumer attitudes shift, and casinos or resorts can easily scale back their prices. But the structural issues are harder, Aguero said.

Travel has flagged across the country and internationally amid tension overTrump’s tariffs and border policies. Although Vegas had a strong 2024, the era of the post-COVID revenge vacation may now be over. People are sticking to budgets and shortening trips. The oldest millennials are entering their 40s and may not have the disposable income of their boomer parents.

That doesn’t mean people will altogether stop flocking to a desert paradise where the hotels have decadent facades and the flagship Taco Bell houses a wedding chapel. Younger generations aren’t averse to spending on vacations, Aguero said, but they’re often chasing a specific experience. Something, in other words, that’s worthy of showcasing on TikTok or Instagram.

Trips that fall short of expectations also get immortalized on social media, which is how the “ghost town” discourse caught fire online. One showgirl lingering on Las Vegas Boulevard on Saturday night said theTikToks had become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

“I feel like we’re just manifesting this,” she said.

Alex Bastian, president and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco, can relate. He acknowledged that the city “took a beating in the national media circuit” when crime rates rose and street conditions deteriorated after COVID. San Francisco has since turned a corner on public safety, he said, expressing hope that all the conventions Vegas poached will eventually come back.

Officials at tourism boards in Napa are tackling their own Internet critics, who portray the valley as so obscenely pricey that regular people can’t go there anymore.

“It breaks my heart to see these narratives play out unfairly,” said Linsey Gallagher, president and CEO of Visit Napa Valley. She emphasized that while Napa is seeing the most growth at its luxury resorts, “we do have value-based options.”

Partying on

Many Vegas establishments have launched a charm offensive to counter the internet chatter. Anyone who flies in over Labor Day might be overwhelmed with promotional deals. Strip clubs such as Crazy Horse 3 are pushing $2 taco Tuesdays. Resorts World waived fees for parking and other amenities over the summer. At Palace Station Hotel and Casino off the Strip, guests can indulge in $1.99 margaritas or a $9.99 steak and eggs special.

“Ultimately, this is going to be good for the consumer,” said Jacob Boardman, a spokesperson for Circa. The sports-themed resort and casino is offering $400 “all-in” packages that include a room for two nights, $200 for meals and beverages and a day bed by the pool.

In recent years, Vegas has emphasized experiences such as sports, gaining the Raiders and eventually the A’s from the Bay Area. Circa owner Stevens was quick to capitalize on Bay Area fans’ separation anxiety.

“We’re very sports-tourism oriented, and that protects us,” the hotel-casino owner said. Despite the background noise of TikTok, “the vibe here is as euphoric as it’s ever been.”

Besides slot machines and its largest-in-the-world sports book, Circa’s key feature is Stadium Swim, a rooftop pool where football games andUFC fights are projected on giant screens. Admission on a weekend starts at $30 for non-hotel guests. That wasn’t enough to inhibit Jennifer Mejia of Hayward, who was throwing a bachelorette party for her sister, Michelle.

Jennifer said she had snagged a package deal for a celebration with 16 guests, all staying at the Flamingo Vegas Hotel. Michelle wore silver-and-black gogo boots and a baby doll dress cut to resemble a football jersey. She said that after watching the Raiders exhibition game that night, her group might buy tickets to see Gucci Mane perform at the Cromwell Hotel.

This could be the story opening for an epic night in Vegas. Or it could be the plot line for another vacation-regret video. Tickets for Gucci Mane last Saturday ranged from $85 to about $1,000 for a VIP balcony. In other words, a top-shelf Vegas nightlife experience roughly equates to 40 waters from the hotel mini bar.

Reveling in the moment, Michelle Mejia didn’t seem to care.